Thursday, August 18, 2011

Adakah MAS digunakan untuk menyelamat tony fernandes dari hutang besar airasia?

By Mudatengah
Mac 2011 hutang airasia berjumlah RM 7.7 billion (laporan bulan Mac dari Bursa Malaysia).  Bulan September depan hutang Airasia akan melebihi RM 8 billion termasuk bayaran RIBA untuk financing.  Mengikut 'profitability' airasia sekarang tidak mungkin airasia boleh bayar balik jumlah hutang yang teramat sangat besar itu.

Hutang lebih RM 8 billion ini akan melebihi RM 10 billion tahun hadapan kerana tony fernandes telah menempah hampir RM 10 billion kapalterbang sejak tahun lepas.  Adalah diketahui dalam industri penerbangan bahawa syarikat pembuat kapal terbang memberi 'komisen' 2% hingga 8% kepada 'broker' atau 'management' yang membuatkan pembelian itu.  Persoalannya adalah samada tony fernandes ada menerima 'apa-apa' komisen daripada pembelian-pembelian besar itu dan jika ada berapa banyak?  Harus diketahui bahawa airasia berhad adalah syarikat disenarai umum dan mempunyai ramai lagi pemegang saham yang merupakan rakyat malaysia.

Sekarang ternyata bahawa pembelian-pembelian tony fernandes itu adalah tidak perlu dan keterlaluan.  Sekarang tony fernandes membeli kelab bolasepak inggeris queens park rangers untuk hampir RM 600 juta.  Syabas tony fernandes tetapi bukankah duit RM 600 juta itu lebih baik digunakan untuk mengurangkan hutang airasia berhad?

Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar: Have you read the AirAsia’s financial statements?

By Yang Berhormat Wee Chee Keong, Ahli Parlimen Bukit Bintang

I would like to share this comments which I have received from a reader, Warrior 123. I am surprised that mainstream newspapers like Star and others, have resorted to quoting sources, has painted a very rosy picture of this AirAsia/MAS share swap without any analysis on the income statements of AirAsia. Please read this well thought out piece below. Judge for yourself.  I hope that Tan Datuk Sri Azman Mokhtar, head of Khazanah Nasional Bhd, and the bankers can convince us otherwise with their own analysis based on the AirAsia financial statements.   
1.As of the 1st Quarter of 2011, Air Asia (AA) debts amounted to 7.7 billion with cash balances amounting to 1.7billion.
2. In August 2010. AA announced a deferment of their proposed aircraft purchases but sometime in June 2011 they reversed their decision and proceeded to place an order for an additional 200 new aircrafts at the Paris Air Show.
3. As of 31 March 2011, based on data from their 1st Quarter report, AA’s capital commitments stood at RM 19 billion. With the above announcement, an additional RM 54 billion will be added as Capital Commitments as implied in this article:
the proposed CC of roughly 75 billion will be spread over a 15 year period ending 2026. In other words,AA has to ratchet up its earnings to an average of 5 billion per annum to meet its future dues. From 2006 to 2010. AA’s revenue grew by 10 fold from 110 million to roughly 1.1billion, an average growth of RM 200 million per annum.
4. Its cash trove rose 6 fold from approximately 300 million to 1.7 billion but its debts skyrocketed from 1.05 billion in 2006 to 7.7 billion in 2010, an increase of 700%. One gets the ghastly feeling that this is a debt burden that is spiralling out of control.
The schedule for the aircraft delivery is as follows with the Neo being received from 2016 onwards:
2012 = 14
2013 = 13
2014 = 18
2015 = 19
2016 = 19 (4 Neo)
2017 = 14
2018 = 18
2019 = 19
2020 = 20
2021 = 21
2022 = 23
2023 = 24
2024 = 24
2025 = 24
2026 = 9
To compound the issue, the world economy including Asia’s will be into another maelstrom and air travel will invariably be hit:
and we probably will have a white elephant in NS soon give or take three years and another one of my dire predictions I made in when commenting on AA in 2009 materialises.
Of course AA can cancel orders but contract penalties will be onerous. In any case, TF is betting on the assumption that being a big borrower will shield him from foreclosure as banks will be leery of bearing heavy losses! bUt then a sizeable chunk of those loans are being held by Malaysian banks and in the worst case scenario, the government and the taxpayer will have to pick the tab to avert a financial meltdown cascading down the AA slope.

Airline Earnings Showing First Drop in Eight Quarters, IATA Says

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Airlines industry earnings for the three months through June suffered the first year-to-year decline in eight quarters, according to early results, the International Air Transport Association said today.
Figures for 16 carriers showed operating profit shrinking by one-third and net income tumbling almost two-thirds, the industry group said. North America, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America are all showing falls, with European earnings up only in comparison with last year's ash-cloud affected numbers.
While passenger traffic is still tending upwards at a 4 to 5 percent annual pace, jet-fuel prices headed back above $130 a barrel in July, while airline capacity increases are outpacing demand, resulting in June load factors -- or occupancy levels -- that were 1 percentage point below 2010's high, IATA said.
A deterioration in consumer confidence and the economic outlook in the past month will put third-quarter earnings under further pressure, IATA said in its latest Financial Monitor, with the possibility of a slowdown in business travel, which has so far spurred traffic in 2011, a particular worry.
Airline share prices are down about 15 percent this year because of economic concerns, IATA said.

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